tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9460148905957790502024-02-20T00:34:11.081-06:00Ben Warner's PoliticsThree Rules:
1) Monthly topics: I will post a topic once a month, probably in the middle of the month.
2) Fairness: I will be neither fair nor balanced. I post my opinion. The blog will only be fair and balanced if you do your duty and represent your perspective.
3) Comic frame: Be kind in your posts. People who don't agree with you are not evil, just mistaken. No "flaming" or whatever you kids call it. Treat everyone with dignity and respect.Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-24649894929799660982009-05-26T21:06:00.002-05:002009-05-26T21:14:51.948-05:00Thoughts on SotomayorObama just named his first nominee to the Supreme Court. I’ve been reading up today and here is a quick summary of what I’ve learned. <br /><br />1. She is very qualified, very smart, has lots of experience and is extremely meticulous in her decision-making. One article I read said that she includes extensive footnotes of support and evidence even on non-controversial points. In other words, she is well respected in the legal community. <br />2. She will probably be attacked on the following points:<br />a. She once said in an off-hand, tongue-in-cheek way that law students should want clerkships on the Appellate Court because that is where the laws are made. She clarified that the Court does not make law, that she does not agree with the practice, and that it is mostly a product of the interpretive power of the Court, but some will argue that this makes her an activist. <br />b. In an interview once she suggested that a Hispanic woman with diverse life experiences would likely make better decisions than an old white man because he would have less lived experiences to draw from. Conservative commentators have said this makes her a racist. <br />c. She voted to not hear a case of reverse discrimination. White firefighters were arguing that affirmative action policies were preventing them from receiving fair promotions. The decision that she was a part of was apparently dismissive, much less thorough than is her M.O. Conservatives are again arguing she is a racist. More thoughtful critics are concerned about what it means that she did not pay as careful attention to this particular case. <br />So far that’s all I’ve heard for criticism. Limbaugh has already called her a racist, so for what that’s worth…<br />3. She seems to be liberal but it’s hard to say how much. She seems fairly acceptable to most conservatives. One right-wing commentator said that the extreme left would be disappointed with her as a selection, another that she is a far less radical choice than the extremely radical Obama could have made, and many highly conservative Republican Senators voted for her confirmation to the Appellate court (including Orin Hatch from my home state, Utah). <br />4. In spite of her relative moderation the liberal bloggers seem very happy to have her as the nominee. No one is complaining that she is too liberal or not liberal enough. <br />5. She has very few rulings, none of them seem major, on hot-button legal issues like abortion. <br />6. She saved baseball. <br />7. Identity politics: Do not expect a lot of Republican opposition. Republican strategists that advise about how to court the Hispanic vote insist that major opposition to her confirmation would be the nail in the coffin for the GOP’s hopes to get Hispanic votes. I seriously doubt they would do this, and are already avoiding the harsh rhetoric being used by conservative talk radio and such, but if they did it would, in my humble opinion, be the kiss of death for the Republican Party. I predict an easy confirmation. Here is a cool article on that question: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-court-assess27-2009may27,0,4057686.storyBen the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-33316208878678881422009-04-17T11:53:00.001-05:002009-04-17T11:54:28.256-05:00Pirates, the Mob, Drug Lords and Sergio FajardoThe thing about Pirates is that we can’t just kill them all. Here is a very interesting article I discovered via Kundai and the magic of Twitter (yeah, I twit):<br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/johann-hari/you-are-being-lied-to-abo_b_155147.html<br />It happens to have the awesome point that “you are being lied to about pirates,” but the other key elements are thus, pirates are viewed as local heroes, they are an INEVITABLE outgrowth of the social conditions in Somalia. <br /><br />Somalia is a failed state and has been for over a decade. Violence is normal, hope does not exist. The coast is the primary source of wealth. However, because Somalia has no functioning government they cannot enforce and protect their coastal waters. As a result European fishing vessels are overfishing their coast and leaving no food for the people of Somalia. In a different, non-fishing coastal area, the Italian mafia is dumping nuclear waste on behalf of some European governments. The result has been massive sickness and death. <br /><br />Many of the pirates emerged as a volunteer coast guard to protect the fishing rights of the Somali people and to prevent illegal nuclear dumping. Pirates therefore enjoy a great deal of local support and popularity. Obviously there is a level of opportunism and violence that is unacceptable (hostage taking, attacking innocent people, etc). <br /><br />That’s the thing about piracy though, it is a way to make a great deal of money in Somalia while all other avenues lead to poverty and despair. You can kill as many pirates as you want, there will always be people willing to risk their life if the upshot is their only chance out of the desolation of the failed state of Somalia. It is the same reason that no amount cops on the street or mandatory minimum sentencing in the laws will eliminate drug dealers in America. If you have places where the schools are broken, opportunity is a myth, and lots of money can be made pushing drugs, the potential benefits will always outweigh the risks. There have been countless rap songs on this very subject (Biggie, 2 Pac, Jay Z, etc. all have numerous songs with lines advancing this very argument). Now imagine that opportunities are even worse. There are no schools, there is no chance of being an athlete, there is no career in music. Imagine there are no social programs, no fish in the ocean, no food, no protection. In becoming a pirate you risk your life, but the chances of being killed are much smaller than the chances of being arrested in America for peddling drugs. Almost all drug dealers get arrested at some point, virtually no pirates end up being killed. EVEN IF WE CHANGE THAT and kill as many pirates as we can, when the option is a life of opulence and danger or a life of starvation and hopelessness there will always be adventurers willing to risk it all for a chance at a better life. As long as these conditions persist there is absolutely no chance of solving the problem. <br /><br />So what should be done? Well, I have a good idea about the “what,” not so much on the “how.” Medellin, Colombia provides an excellent case study of how a violent, corrupt society built on the hopelessness of poverty and the opulence of crime can be transformed. It was once the home of Pablo Escobar, the epicenter of global narco-trafficking and a place with little hope. Now violence has dramatically decreased, it is safe to visit, the drug trafficking has by and large moved elsewhere and the people have hope. I believe that Sergio Fajardo knows best how this came to be and what programs are needed to replicate this success elsewhere. Listen to him explain how Medellin was transformed: <br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0hIUIa_jTy8&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0hIUIa_jTy8&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-41099082900291855922009-03-13T17:43:00.000-05:002009-03-13T17:44:00.311-05:00Stewart/Cramer and a new name for terroristsIf you have not seen the Jon Stewart/Jim Cramer exchange yet, please do yourself a favor and watch it. I’m going to post the whole exchange, the hype leading up to it and everything, but if you don’t want to watch 45 minutes of youtube videos then please do yourself a favor and at least watch the 3 part interview posted at the end. It is MUST WATCH!!! The analogy floating around is to the time when Jon Stewart killed crossfire, and I think the analogy is apropos. <br />While many things come out of this, the one I wish to highlight is how Jon Stewart appears to be modeling good journalism. He criticizes Cramer and CNBC for bad journalism and shows them, through his interview, what good journalism looks like. Imagine if CNBC had used a similar technique when CEOs went on to their shows. Cramer complains about Paulson lying in an interview. Why complain, why not expose him on air like Stewart just did to you? It’s what they do on Meet the Press. Use this exchange as a template. I would like to say that it would be unfair to make Cramer the fall guy. He was honest enough to come on the show and not make too many excuses for stuff. He should be admired for his bravery and thanked for acting as a useful prop. Without him this smack-down could not have happened. <br /><br />However, before I post any of these things, I want to emphasize a story that may have flown a bit under the radar. The Obama administration is abandoning the “enemy combatant” label for people suspected of terrorist activities. This was a big deal in the debate community last year and rightly so. Bush in part used the label to carve out a legal grey area. Enemy combatants were supposedly neither criminals who have the rights of criminals nor soldiers who have Geneva rights. The label was also a symbolic move that helped hide the fact that our country was obtaining people, some innocent and some guilty, holding them without charge (or hope of release, or any ability to contact the outside world, a terrifying thought for those who ended up being innocent), and subjecting them to “enhanced interrogation” (a lovely euphemism for, among other things, torture). The Washington Post recognized the significance of this shift: <br />“Though dropping the term "enemy combatant" will have little practical effect, it is a symbolic move by the Obama administration to break with the past”.<br />http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/13/AR2009031302371.html?hpid=topnews<br /><br />This change is an important symbolic break. It is an acknowledgment that everyone is human, whether we suspect they are terrorist or not, and that everyone should be treated as such. It is a great relief for me. When I was a kid I always believed that if something terrible happened, if I was exposed to injustice, if I were confused with someone else, I could always count on my country to keep me safe. That was the great thing about America, my innocence would be found out. After all, you can’t treat me this way, I’m a human just like anyone else. This is a purely symbolic move, but it is an important one because it restores a bit of that childhood faith. It reassures me that there isn’t a different category of person, a category of person that isn’t just as human as anyone else. If for no other reason I wanted to highlight tat particular story. <br /><br />Now, the Stewart/Cramer debate, set up first then interview. 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And Sell Die</a></div></div><embed style='float:left; clear:left;' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:220534' width='360' height='301' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' flashvars='autoPlay=false' bgcolor='#000000'></embed><div class='cc_links' style='float:left; clear:left; width:358px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-top:0px; font:10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; color:#b9b9b9; background-color:#f5f5f5;'><div style='width:177px; float:left; padding-left:3px;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/important_things/index.jhtml'>Important Things w/ Demetri Martin</a></div><div style='width:177px; float:left;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com'>Political Humor</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://blog.indecisionforever.com/2009/03/13/jon-stewart-and-jim-cramer-the-extended-daily-show-interview/'>Jim Cramer</a></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><br /><br />Interview: <br /><br /><style type='text/css'>.cc_box a:hover .cc_home{background:url('http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-over.png') !important;}.cc_links a{color:#b9b9b9;text-decoration:none;}.cc_show a{color:#707070;text-decoration:none;}.cc_title a{color:#868686;text-decoration:none;}.cc_links a:hover{color:#67bee2;text-decoration:underline;}</style><div class='cc_box' style='position:relative'><a href='http://www.comedycentral.com' target='_blank' style='display:inline; 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clear:left;' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:221517' width='360' height='301' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' flashvars='autoPlay=false' bgcolor='#000000'></embed><div class='cc_links' style='float:left; clear:left; width:358px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-top:0px; font:10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; color:#b9b9b9; background-color:#f5f5f5;'><div style='width:177px; float:left; padding-left:3px;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/important_things/index.jhtml'>Important Things w/ Demetri Martin</a></div><div style='width:177px; float:left;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com'>Political Humor</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://blog.indecisionforever.com/2009/03/13/jon-stewart-and-jim-cramer-the-extended-daily-show-interview/'>Jim Cramer</a></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><style type='text/css'>.cc_box a:hover .cc_home{background:url('http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-over.png') !important;}.cc_links a{color:#b9b9b9;text-decoration:none;}.cc_show a{color:#707070;text-decoration:none;}.cc_title a{color:#868686;text-decoration:none;}.cc_links a:hover{color:#67bee2;text-decoration:underline;}</style><div class='cc_box' style='position:relative'><a href='http://www.comedycentral.com' target='_blank' style='display:inline; float:left; width:60px; height:31px;'><div class='cc_home' style='float:left; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 0px 0px 1px; width:60px; height:31px; background:url("http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-out.png");'></div></a><div style='font:bold 10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; float:left; width:299px; height:31px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px; overflow:hidden; color:#707070;'><div class='cc_show' style='position:relative; background-color:#e5e5e5;padding-left:3px; height:14px; padding-top:2px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/' target='_blank'>The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a><span style='position:absolute; top:2px; right:3px;'>M - Th 11p / 10c</span></div><div class='cc_title' style='font-size:11px; color:#868686; background-color:#f5f5f5; padding:3px; padding-top:1px; line-height:14px; height:21px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=221518&title=jim-cramer-unedited-interview' target='_blank'>Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 3</a></div></div><embed style='float:left; clear:left;' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:221518' width='360' height='301' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' flashvars='autoPlay=false' bgcolor='#000000'></embed><div class='cc_links' style='float:left; clear:left; width:358px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-top:0px; font:10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; color:#b9b9b9; background-color:#f5f5f5;'><div style='width:177px; float:left; padding-left:3px;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/index.jhtml'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/important_things/index.jhtml'>Important Things w/ Demetri Martin</a></div><div style='width:177px; float:left;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com'>Political Humor</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://blog.indecisionforever.com/2009/03/13/jon-stewart-and-jim-cramer-the-extended-daily-show-interview/'>Jim Cramer</a></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div>Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-78881968153066217952009-02-14T17:41:00.001-06:002009-02-14T17:41:45.309-06:00Republicans bad strategyOk, so I’ll work on this whole “regular” thing. I read somewhere that if you want your blog to earn a readership you need to post at a consistent time so people can eventually integrate reading it into their habits. Perhaps if I had more faith that I will one day have a “readership” or anything that resembles more than a hodgepodge of curious friends and family I would be better at this “schedule.” I’m happy to write for my hodgepodge though, and I’m sure my hodgepodge doesn’t lose sleep over my irregularity (is there a bowel movements joke here?) <br /><br />I am motivated to return to my Interneting by an argument I would like to make about the Republican Party. I firmly believe that they are focused on a myopic and short-sighted goal: discredit Obama. There is no strategic vision here. You’ll never win elections with “them the bad guys.” There has to be some believable element of “we are good guys.” <br /><br />If the Republicans vote almost totally against the stimulus, water it down, fight it tooth and nail, they can later argue that Obama wasn’t able to transcend partisanship. Sure, they look like assholes, but he also looks like he failed in his mission. Given how impossible it will be to fix the economy in 2 years, they can also argue that the stimulus didn’t work and was wasteful spending. Here is the problem, they also look like assholes. They look petulant and uncooperative. I don’t think they care. I think they honestly believe that 2010 will be all about Obama: if he looks good they loose, if he looks a bit tarnished maybe they have a chance. <br /><br />The Republicans are at a rare crossroads and have a real opportunity to reinvent themselves and their message yet all they want to do is drag down the President (in a time of full crisis no less). Here is some evidence of what it is like inside their heads. This is part of a transcript taken from the post-election conference at the Dole Institute (soon to be published on the Dole Institute website, just as soon as I can finish editing the transcript for them : )<br /><br />The broader context of conversation is basically this: it is suggested that McCain could have beat Obama on the strength of his character but that his attempts to trash Obama ruined that strength of character. The McCain campaign managers respond that the whole election was only about Obama and if they didn’t discredit him they would lose. The participants in this particular conversation are Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com, Kelly O’Donnell from NBC News, Sarah Simmons, Deputy Director of Strategy for the McCain Campaign and Christian Ferry, Deputy Campaign Manager for the McCain Campaign. (the program also had campaign managers from every significant primary campaign, two from Obama’s, and representatives from the New York Times, New York Post, TalkingPoints Memo, Edison polling, and maybe something else I’m forgetting but these other participants weren’t speaking up at this particular point of dialogue). <br /><br />Nate Silver:<br /> It seems to me that the in between would be to have one message but to have it be John McCain’s message. Sometimes it felt like it was a more generic Republican, Steve Schmidt message and not John McCain’s message.<br /><br />Kelly O’Donnell:<br /> For example?<br /><br />Nate Silver:<br /> Well, the celebrity thing, which I think was effective in the short term. That’s not really McCain’s brand. If you’re concerned about campaign finance and not going with public financing being against his brand, well so is Britney Spears, I think. <br /><br />Sarah Simmons:<br /> I actually thought that was completely consistent with his brand. He was saying that he was a guy of substance. We were running against a guy who had basically gotten into this race and had turned into a celebrity such that reporters didn’t ask him serious questions. Voters would parrot back his message with, “we’ll fix that economy with a dash of hope and a splash of change.” Part of our argument was that there wasn’t a substantive message coming out of the Obama campaign. I think that is a reasonable thing to discuss on a political campaign. You guys probably disagree, I hope you disagree, but I think that’s a reasonable thing to be discussing on a campaign. <br /><br />Christian Ferry: <br />We decided early on, and I’d be curious to know your thoughts, that this campaign was about Barack Obama. This was a change election. We’ve said it over and over again. The primaries were about change. There was going to be a new direction and a new president and change. From our perspective this campaign was going to be about Barack Obama. If Barack Obama could clear the hurdle and show that he had the experience, that he had what it takes to be President of the United States, chances were he was going to win this election. The celebrity ad, you say that is not John McCain’s brand, but it wasn’t about John McCain, it was about Barack Obama. <br /><br />Nate Silver:<br />This is where I disagree. If you look at the head to heads with Obama and other Republican candidates back in the primaries, Romney was losing to Obama by 12 or 15 points. Fred Thompson was losing by 12 or 15 points. Giuliani was losing by 10 points. Only McCain was competitive in the first place. That says that it is a lot about McCain. The things that make McCain not Mitt Romney were important and some of those were lost. <br /><br />Christian Ferry:<br />I would disagree. I mean, this was a change election. Looking back on primary polling to make that conclusion is useful but at the end of the day it was going to be a match between someone who had won a Republican primary and someone who had won a Democratic primary and at that point you’ve got to reexamine the race and look at it all over again. <br /><br />Sarah Simmons:<br />Barack Obama’s candidacy changed between the primary and the general election too. I think he became, I do think the process was very good for him as a candidate. I think he became stronger. He became more articulate. He became better at delivering his message. I watched a lot of the primary debates and there was a lot of “um” and “uh.” You guys are right, he is better in a long format because it’s difficult for him. I don’t know if it’s difficult for him or if he wasn’t as practiced at delivering his message in a short format. I also think that’s like comparing apples to oranges.<br /><br />Christian Ferry:<br />I do believe that in this environment John McCain was a particular kind of Republican who had a chance to win in this difficult environment. But in order for him to have that shot people needed to come to the conclusion that the change Obama was offering wasn’t the direction the country needed to go.Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-17587980322543525002008-12-10T16:15:00.002-06:002008-12-10T16:40:12.064-06:00Gay WeddingsAfter an extended hiatus I'm back writing about politics again. According to the internet I have one followers so, to those disappointed masses, fear not. I'm back. <br /><br />I have been absorbing a bunch of post election breakdown and will eventually post about some of my research and some of the other cool things i've encountered relative to that. First I want to brainstorm about Gay Marriage. I don't think I know that many folks that think it's a bad idea. However, it has been on the ballot in 30 states and 30 states have rejected it. It thus seems obvious that we need new strategies for talking about it. <br /><br />This is a great interview between Mike Huckabee and Jon Stewart. <br /><br /><style type='text/css'>.cc_box a:hover .cc_home{background:url('http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-over.png') !important;}.cc_links a{color:#b9b9b9;text-decoration:none;}.cc_show a{color:#707070;text-decoration:none;}.cc_title a{color:#868686;text-decoration:none;}.cc_links a:hover{color:#67bee2;text-decoration:underline;}</style><div class='cc_box' style='position:relative'><a href='http://www.comedycentral.com' target='_blank' style='display:inline; float:left; width:60px; height:31px;'><div class='cc_home' style='float:left; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 0px 0px 1px; width:60px; height:31px; background:url("http://www.comedycentral.com/comedycentral/video/assets/syndicated-logo-out.png");'></div></a><div style='font:bold 10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; float:left; width:299px; height:31px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-width:1px 1px 0px 0px; overflow:hidden; color:#707070;'><div class='cc_show' style='position:relative; background-color:#e5e5e5;padding-left:3px; height:14px; padding-top:2px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/' target='_blank'>The Daily Show With Jon Stewart</a><span style='position:absolute; top:2px; right:3px;'>M - Th 11p / 10c</span></div><div class='cc_title' style='font-size:11px; color:#868686; background-color:#f5f5f5; padding:3px; padding-top:1px; line-height:14px; height:21px; overflow:hidden;'><a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=213349&title=mike-huckabee-pt.-2' target='_blank'>Mike Huckabee Pt. 2</a></div></div><embed style='float:left; clear:left;' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:213349' width='360' height='301' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' flashvars='autoPlay=false' bgcolor='#000000'></embed><div class='cc_links' style='float:left; clear:left; width:358px; border:solid 1px #cfcfcf; border-top:0px; font:10px Arial,Helvetica,Verdana,sans-serif; color:#b9b9b9; background-color:#f5f5f5;'><div style='width:177px; float:left; padding-left:3px;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=166515&title=Barack-Obama-Pt.-1'>Barack Obama Interview</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=167938&title=John-McCain-Pt.-1'>John McCain Interview</a></div><div style='width:177px; float:left;'><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?searchterm=Sarah+Palin&searchtype=site&x=0&y=0'>Sarah Palin Video</a><br /><a target='_blank' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?searchterm=indecision+2008&searchtype=site&x=0&y=0'>Funny Election Video</a></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><div style='clear:both'></div></div><br /><br />I think it helps show how logically indefensible the anti-gay marriage position is. I also wonder if we just need more of this or if the rational arguments on the subject are not likely to succeed. Dr. Rowland teaches his undergraduate students that a logical argument is not likely to succeed if a: people have already taken their position and b: there is no new information or c: if it is a value issue d: it is a highly complex issue. However, he argus that over time the logical position tends to win out. Do we just need more time? Do we have any new information? If not, we may need new strategies. My suspicion is that we do need new strategies and starting with happy California couples who's marriages were voided is not a bad idea. We should share these stories, and see if we can't get others to realize that their position on the definition of marriage is really hurtful to some. <br /><br />Here is another interesting argument that is all over the internet these days:<br /><br /><object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/O5-fZKg4Uj4&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/O5-fZKg4Uj4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object><br /><br />It certainly plays with form. It uses celebrities and appeals to reason as well as self interest. I wonder if it isn't just a new packaging of the old strategies though. I suspect we need to find other ways to articulate our positions. Thoughts?Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-73633021733436016512008-11-04T09:40:00.001-06:002008-11-04T09:40:29.683-06:00The ElectionWhat to watch today, and my predictions: <br />BTW, I am totally indebted to www.fivethirtyeight.com. I voraciously read anything I can get my hands on about the election but constantly turn to this website for all my info. <br /><br />Number 1: Prop 8 in California is a major cultural issue for us. Will the people of California vote to ban gay marriage? I think it is a toss up, I have no idea. <br /><br />Number 2: Al Franken. The Senate is very interesting this year. The Democrats should be safe in all of their defenses and should pick up seats in Virginia (Senator Warner has a nice ring to it : ), New Mexico, Alaska (anyone feel bad for Ted Stevens?), Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon. That would bring the Democrat lead in the Senate to 58 (counting the two independents. Georgia could be 59. Saxby Chambliss has a small lead in all polling but I personally think the Georgia polls will be conservative by about 3-4 points because “likely voter” polls will discount a lot of new black and young voters, something that I think factors heavily in Georgia. Chambliss also deserves to lose after what he did to Max Cleland (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14474-2002Jun19.html) so I’m giving Martin a karmic edge too. I’m really looking to see if one of my favorite political satirists can push the democrats into 59/60 territory. Keep an eye on that Minnesota race, it’s a true toss up. Remember, this is the state of Jesse Ventura. <br /><br />Number 3: How far will Obama run up the score? I think 290 is almost certain. I think a reasonable ceiling is 396 (to get 400 he would need Arizona or South Carolina or West Virginia or something crazy like that. I guess Louisiana could go, that stat is crazy in terms of politics, but it should be solid McCain state. I think Obama will get 354, losing Missouri, Ohio and Indiana but winning Georgia, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and most of the South West and Mountain West. I could easily be wrong about Missouri and Ohio and may be overestimating Georgia. <br /><br />If you are just watching for the presidency you can go to be after they call Virginia and Pennsylvania for Obama.Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-4784828131388148992008-10-28T14:54:00.000-05:002008-10-28T14:55:12.785-05:00How to spot a racistThis campaign is not about race. It’s one of the great things about the Obama candidacy, we are on the brink of a historic moment and it seems like a footnote in an election defined by much bigger issues. In other words, race is not much of a political story right now. <br />However, politics is an important race story. So what can we learn about racial politics in America because of this election? We learn that racists speak in code. Code is used to deceive others, to deceive yourself maybe. Most importantly, code is used to communicate to those who may be afraid to speak their prejudice out loud. <br /><br />My favorite incarnation of this is the speech about race that Obama gave a while ago in response to the Rev. Wright controversy. If you missed it you really should give it a look: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/03/18/us/politics/20080318_OBAMA_GRAPHIC.html<br /><br />Early in the semester Ray Strother (http://www.strotherduffystrother.com/) told a class I was in that when someone says “I just don’t know enough about Obama” they really mean “I am not comfortable voting for a black man.” How can you tell? He has campaigned for 17 months, been in 3 presidential debates and dozens of primary debates, he has written 2 books about himself, run more advertising than any candidate ever, been the subject of endless news coverage and has one of the most extensive and easy to navigate websites ever created. If you don’t know much about Obama it’s not because there isn’t a lot to know. In fact, how would one know a bunch about McCain and not enough about Obama? Have they been watching Senate debates on C-Span for the decades he’s been in office? No, at this point that is code. <br /><br />More code: “he’s not like you and me,” “he’s a secret Muslim,” “he’s a radical/extremist,” “he’s too risky,” “Barak HUSSEIN Obama,” etc. etc. etc. All of these are stand in phrases for “I’m not sure I can vote for a person of color.” How is he “not like us” any more or less than any other politician we’ve ever voted for? What is “risky” about him and not some other Democrat or Republican? Where does this radicalism come from? <br /><br />Tell me this isn’t race code:<br /><embed FlashVars='videoId=189142' src='http://www.thedailyshow.com/sitewide/video_player/view/default/swf.jhtml' quality='high' bgcolor='#cccccc' width='332' height='316' name='comedy_central_player' align='middle' allowScriptAccess='always' allownetworking='external' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed><br /><br />If you don’t believe this is race baiting then tell me how Palin caught so many fish with it:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/KjxzmaXAg9E&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/KjxzmaXAg9E&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Look at what civil rights icon John Lewis had to say about the situation: <br />http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/John_Lewis_invoking_George_Wallace_says_McCain_and_Palin_playing_with_fire.html<br /><br />Also, watch for familiar plot lines to come up. Dangerous black man hunts helpless white woman is a popular story. If you make the characters the appropriate race and gender you can insert the plot and not say a think about race, the stereotype is already invoked. Here are two examples of this story emerging in the campaign: <br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/mccain-supporter-who-clai_n_137484.html<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/LK4oWay1VbE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/LK4oWay1VbE&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> <br /><br />In any event, I believe that we can still learn a lot about racial politics in this country by watching how people talk and act regarding the Obama candidacy. Thoughts?Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-56226460563251356292008-10-21T15:41:00.001-05:002008-10-21T15:41:44.079-05:00Selecting a Pres: why issues don't matterHow do you select a president? Should someone vote on the issues? Should people vote on personality? Character? Values? I have friends who agree with one candidate a majority of the time but would vote the other way on the basis of one or two “trigger issues” like abortion or the war. <br />Here are my thoughts on the subject: issues should not be the focus of your vote. They should assist you in making your decision but should not be the sole locus of decision-making. <br /><br />Presidents often campaign on the policies they would like to pass but settle for what they can get done. Sometimes a drastic event happens (like 9/11 or the current financial melt down) that changes everything. For example, in 2000 Bush campaigned against “nation building” and military overstretch. He criticized US operations in Yugoslavia and Somalia and said if he were president he would not use the military in nation building/peacekeeping operations. Here is him saying just that (he talks nation building at the 1 min mark)<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/F9SOVzMV2bc&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/F9SOVzMV2bc&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Clinton had a large list of issues he wanted to pursue. He ended up with a Republican congress and basically passed a Reagan agenda (welfare reform, NAFTA, balanced budget). Bush promised a Reagan agenda and ended up with a giant government that has massive deficits. Here is some research my friend did:<br /><br />From 2001 to 2007, in the years that the Republicans controlled both the White House and the Congress, non-defense related Federal spending increased from roughly $330 billion to over $549 billion http://www.heritage.org/research/features/BudgetChartBook/PDF/S6.pdf, the largest increase in non-defense spending in the history of the United States.<br /><br /><br />Anyway, the point I’m making is that issues tell us what a presidents priorities are and what they value. That is important, and it’s nice to know that the Prez is going to push some good ideas (in theory). But campaign promises are largely empty promises (not lies, just wishful thinking). I like to use issues to help me understand where the candidate is philosophically, then I try to pick the person that I think will steer the country in a good direction. That’s why I don’t think the details of a heath care plan are that important but I do think the difference between a Universal plan and a “tax cut” “market based” solution is important. It tells me that Obama knows the system is broken and wants to try to fix it while McCain isn’t willing to move on his free market philosophy even if it means sacrificing millions without healthcare. <br /><br />That’s just my thinking though. How do you make your decision?Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-6481900963642776492008-10-13T14:38:00.001-05:002008-10-13T14:40:19.435-05:00The Sky Is Falling???Paul Krugman, a Princeton economist who was awarded the Nobel Prize just today, had this to say about how screwed we all are: <br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yqxjoR-eobM&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yqxjoR-eobM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Interviews like this freak me out. Not only are all expert economists saying the worst, they look nervous when they say it. Doesn’t Krugman look rattled? I’ve been trying to make heads and tails of what is going on with the economy and here is what I can figure out. <br /><br />One: If you are really tied up in either finance or fluctuating mortgages you are in a lot of trouble. This is on the brink of becoming a full scale financial meltdown. One man who made his fortune in finance already snapped, killed his whole family and then took his own life. He left notes all over his house just in case we were wondering why he went nuts: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1848422,00.html<br />There is also the story of Addie Polk. She is a 90 year old woman who was being foreclosed on by Fannie Mae. When they came to kick her out of her house they found that she had shot herself in the chest with a shotgun: http://newpaper.asia1.com.sg/news/story/0,4136,179449,00.html<br /> She survived and Fannie forgave her outstanding dept, but this isn’t going to be the only instance of crisis induced suicide. The World Health Organization is already warning of a spike in the international suicide rate as a result of the crisis: http://news.theage.com.au/world/world-crisis-may-cause-suicide-rise-who-20081010-4xru.html<br /><br />So what if you don’t work in finance or don’t have skyrocketing mortgage bills? Will finance spill over into your life? To an extent it certainly will. Should you start stockpiling cans of food and clean drinking water? Couldn’t hurt. Comparisons to The Great Depression are rampant. Take this one: “it is not fanciful to make comparisons with the Great Depression,” Andreas Whittam Smith, British Financial Journalists and co-founder of The Independent (one of Britain’s major newspapers). <br /><br />However, there is a difference between an actual crisis and a perceived crisis. Unfortunately, if people perceive that there is a crisis it can cause things like a run on the banks, a refusal to invest, people hiding stocks of cash in their mattresses instead of putting earnings into the economy, etc. This could precipitate an actual crisis. In fact, Washington Mutual likely collapsed because people were (justifiably in this case) afraid of a collapse (see: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95105112). <br />Fear can freeze up capital. If investors are pulling their money out of the economy and ordinary people are pulling their money out of the banks then there isn’t likely much capital flowing in the economy for regular loans. It’s hard to buy a house or a car. This slows the economy more because these big ticket purchases help drive growth. If banks run out of money for loans they may even have trouble providing routine payroll loans to reliable businesses (like the Sonic on the corner). Here is a real world example: <br />“Two weeks ago, for instance, I was on the executive floor of a large company, a household name for generations. Decent people run it. It makes substantial profits. I found the directors stunned to discover that they could no longer go on raising short-term loans from time to time to balance out the ebbs and flows of their cash flows. This was a "first" in the company's long history.” <br />http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andreas-whittam-smith/andreas-whittam-smith-we-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-great-depression-959311.html<br /><br />If people can’t get their paychecks then we are in a real economic crisis. However, the government understands these risks. That’s why we are on the line for a $700 billion bailout. Not because these companies deserve charity, but because it is a quick and easy way to inject money back into the economy. It’s also why the Fed is lowering interest rates and why England is starting to partially nationalize their banks. It’s to make sure there is enough money in the banking sector to keep capital flowing through the rest of the economy. This should help blunt the impact of the crisis on the rest of the economy. If you want an optimistic view on the subject check this article out: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/13views.html?ref=business<br /><br />Not everyone believes this may work though. Ever hear of a “toxic asset”? It is basically an asset that people pretended was worth lots of money even though it’s really worth next to nothing. How does this happen? Lets say a bank loans ½ a million dollars to someone who has not ability or intention of paying it back. The bank may pretend that this is actually worth half a million dollars. In reality, it’s worth nothing. It’d be like if I wrote you a check for 6 Kazillion dollars. You may think you are a Kazillionare, but you really don’t have one more penny as a result of our transaction. Unfortunately, lots of banks are holding lots of these “toxic assets” and are therefore terrified to lend to anyone. Don’t believe me? That “1/2 a million dollars” story is 100% true. Check out this terrifying and eye opening account: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90327686<br /><br />Will partial nationalizations, trillion dollar bailouts and lowered interest rates fix this? Maybe. Part of the point of the bailout is to take toxic assets off the hands of these lending institutions so they will be willing to offer loans again. However, Stephen King (not that one, he’s the managing director of economics at HSBC and only recently in the business of writing things that scare the shit out of me) wonders “What happens, though, if the banking systems are so overly leveraged that under no circumstances can these bailout policies be made to work? Then, policy-makers will have to consider the nuclear option. In effect, through the sale of bonds to the central bank, governments can "print" money, to be distributed through an economy via tax cuts or, even more effectively, increases in government spending. Think roads, railways, airports, hospitals and the like. Money is pumped into the economy without the need for a banking system. The government allocates capital, the central bank loses its independence and free market philosophies are eviscerated.”<br />http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-lessons-from-the-great-depression-of-the-1930s-have-not-been-learnt-959408.html<br /><br /><br />So are we facing a great depression? I hope not. I have a friend who recently got a great job with her masters degree only to have it pulled from her months later because the company eliminated all of their new employees (growth wasn’t as big as projected). I’ve heard that people entering the job market in academia are being advised to accept multiple job offers because Universities will likely be rescinding them after they see revised budget numbers. In other words, it may be hard for dudes like me to get a job when I finish all this schooling. <br /><br />I am told that Obama and McCain both plan to unveil a grand strategy for fixing the economy today. It is more important than ever to have smart, quick and cooperative action to stem the crisis. However, we need to be honest about where we are. The government did not create this problem. Lack of oversight? Maybe. The Great Depression started in the private sector. It was Coolidge and Hoover’s attachment to free market economics and small government that allowed the problem to spiral out of control. The philosophy of free market, non-intervention, tax cuts, trickle down, etc. is tried and failed. Massive interventions (like are happening in Britain) are needed. Make sure our policy makers are being honest with us about what they are doing and how they plan to fix the problem. Fortunately, I don’t think anyone is foolish enough to just let the market sort this one out for itself. Only the most deranged free market capitalist would suggest it and I don’t think we have someone like that on the ticket (not since Ron Paul dropped out of the race anyway). Thoughts?Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-946014890595779050.post-88797946228818010092008-10-05T22:28:00.002-05:002008-10-05T23:07:01.450-05:00Sarah Palin is not a serious candidate for vice presidentI understand why people like Sarah Palin. I also think she is a rising star and a politics success story. She is perfectly qualified for most political positions. However, it is a joke to treat her like a serious option for president, as a legitimate understudy to the most powerful position in the world. <br />Exhibit A: A series of uncomfortable facts: (1) she never had a passport. This is an indication that in her 44 years she was never interested or engaged in foreign affairs. Her world is big, it is the biggest state in the nation, but it is nothing more. (2) She can't name a Supreme Court decision she disagrees with other than Roe v. Wade. This may be tough for many Americans, but it should be easy for any serious presidential candidate. People mock Bush for being dumb but he knows dozens of decisions he doesn't agree with. What about Griswold? It gave privacy rights and it the basis not only for Roe v. Wade but also for the Lawrence decision that overturned Bowers v. Hardwick thus making anti-Sodamy laws unconstitutional. Shouldn't a real social conservative know about Griswold? What about Korematsu, the decision that upheld the interment of Japanese Americans during World War II? It's still the law of the land. What about Plessy v. Ferguson? Shouldn't any candidate for president be able to name that one? (3) Prior to being named vice president she said that she didn't have strong opinions about Iraq because she had never thought much about it. That's fine if you are a governor but it is not ok if you may well be president. This is just a small sampling. <br /><br />Exhibit B: The Bush Doctrine<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Z75QSExE0jU&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Z75QSExE0jU&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br />I have heard all the arguments about how the Bush doctrine is fluid. Lets not split hairs here though. Any student of international relations knows that the Bush administration made a major shift in US foreign policy and away from international norms when they assumed the right to attack a nation that did not pose a direct and imminent threat. Iraq had no ability to attack the US and we invaded anyway. No definition of the Bush Doctrine will stray from this premise. "His world view" is not even close to any interpretation espoused by anyone who knows. Again, ok if you are a governor but nowhere near ok for the president. <br /><br />Exhibit C: Couric Interview <br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/zeMypXCUWMw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/zeMypXCUWMw&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/nokTjEdaUGg&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/nokTjEdaUGg&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/L8__aXxXPVc&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/L8__aXxXPVc&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Exhibit D: The Debate<br />Why should I type my opinion when Keith Olbermann did a nice job covering the key points for me:<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/RsfbVMHB3c0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/RsfbVMHB3c0&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />And for fun<br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/iZsO7dZ__iw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/iZsO7dZ__iw&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />Again, I don't think she is a bad person or unqualified for the job she has. I just think she is terribly under-qualified for the job she wants. I don't agree with her politically but that isn't what this is about. I don't think she is remotely capable of running the most powerful nation in the world. If anyone can think of any argument to the contrary I'd like to hear it.Ben the Bloggerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11956506977671816396noreply@blogger.com7