Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The Election

What to watch today, and my predictions:
BTW, I am totally indebted to www.fivethirtyeight.com. I voraciously read anything I can get my hands on about the election but constantly turn to this website for all my info.

Number 1: Prop 8 in California is a major cultural issue for us. Will the people of California vote to ban gay marriage? I think it is a toss up, I have no idea.

Number 2: Al Franken. The Senate is very interesting this year. The Democrats should be safe in all of their defenses and should pick up seats in Virginia (Senator Warner has a nice ring to it : ), New Mexico, Alaska (anyone feel bad for Ted Stevens?), Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon. That would bring the Democrat lead in the Senate to 58 (counting the two independents. Georgia could be 59. Saxby Chambliss has a small lead in all polling but I personally think the Georgia polls will be conservative by about 3-4 points because “likely voter” polls will discount a lot of new black and young voters, something that I think factors heavily in Georgia. Chambliss also deserves to lose after what he did to Max Cleland (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14474-2002Jun19.html) so I’m giving Martin a karmic edge too. I’m really looking to see if one of my favorite political satirists can push the democrats into 59/60 territory. Keep an eye on that Minnesota race, it’s a true toss up. Remember, this is the state of Jesse Ventura.

Number 3: How far will Obama run up the score? I think 290 is almost certain. I think a reasonable ceiling is 396 (to get 400 he would need Arizona or South Carolina or West Virginia or something crazy like that. I guess Louisiana could go, that stat is crazy in terms of politics, but it should be solid McCain state. I think Obama will get 354, losing Missouri, Ohio and Indiana but winning Georgia, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and most of the South West and Mountain West. I could easily be wrong about Missouri and Ohio and may be overestimating Georgia.

If you are just watching for the presidency you can go to be after they call Virginia and Pennsylvania for Obama.